AFC West Preview: Kansas City Still The Favorites
We're starting our season preview series, starting with the AFC West. Enjoy!
1: Kansas City Chiefs
2020 Record: 14-2
Coaching Staff: Andy Reid (HC), Eric Bieniemy (OC), Steve Spagnuolo (DC)
Additions: Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, Jarran Reed, Austin Blythe, Mike Hughes
Departures: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Austin Reiter, Sammy Watkins, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Bashaud Breeland
2021 Draft Class: Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, Joshua Kaindoh, Noah Gray, Cornell Powell, Trey Smith
The Chiefs’ coaching staff has had surprising continuity these past few years, considering they’ve had the best record over the last three seasons. Andy Reid is back for his 23rd season and angry about the humiliation he felt in January. Eric Bieniemy, unfortunately, didn’t get hired again in this coaching cycle, but his fire and leadership will be needed again. Steve Spagnuolo is now in his 3rd season as defensive coordinator, and it feels like he has total control over this defense. This staff hasn’t lost many coaches through the years, which is a help with some new faces on the roster.
At quarterback, the Chiefs have a clear advantage over any team in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and that’s not going to change. Mahomes will hopefully have significantly better pass protection with this new-look offensive line than what they had in 2020. Mahomes has dealt with many lower-body injuries in his career, and it’s up to the Chiefs to make sure he stays healthier. If he’s healthy, nobody will challenge him for his crown.
The Chiefs may not be as strong as they’ve been in the past at the skill positions. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are back and primed to dominate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire enters his 2nd year and should benefit from having a vastly improved offensive line to block for him. The question comes after those guys. Sammy Watkins left for Baltimore, which leaves a question mark at WR2. Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle are back, but none have proven to be able to step into that role when Watkins was injured. Rookies Noah Gray and Cornell Powell will hopefully give the Chiefs some new skillsets to look at, but the Chiefs will be challenged without Watkins in big spots.
The significant additions of the offseason come on the offensive line. Joe Thuney comes in from New England, bringing a stabilizing force to the IOL. Orlando Brown Jr. is coming in to play left tackle and brings a level of size and physicality the Chiefs haven’t had at tackle. Creed Humphrey was drafted in the 2nd round and hopes to bring his experience and IQ at center. Kyle Long is coming off a year off, and while he’s been injured, his athleticism should help the unit. If Long’s injured, the Chiefs drafted uber-talented Trey Smith to come in and maul some defensive tackles. Lucas Niang and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif come back from opt-outs and bring quality depth. Austin Blythe is a superb backup center. The Chiefs brought in high-level acquisitions, multiple talented rookies, and added depth to the unit. This was a masterclass from the front office rebuilding the offensive line, and Mahomes should have much more time upfront this season.
On defense, there are a bunch of new changes to the Front 7. Jarran Reed is brought in from Seattle and figures to help the Chiefs run defense and pass rush significantly. Nick Bolton was drafted from Missouri, bringing more speed and explosiveness to the linebacker position. Joshua Kaindoh may not play much in Year 1, but he could help the Chiefs with his athleticism. Chris Jones is rumored to play more defensive end, which gives the Chiefs more mass up front. This might be the most talented Front 7 of the Spagnuolo era and should be the strength of the Chiefs’ defense.
The secondary has some massive concerns to it. Bashaud Breeland left for Minnesota, leaving the cornerback group in a precarious spot. Star rookie L’Jarius Sneed figures to work on the outside, but the rest of the group isn’t great. Charvarius Ward had his struggles in 2020, and behind him is rough. Mike Hughes was acquired from Minnesota, but he’s never played more than 20% of snaps in a single season ever. Rashad Fenton is okay but not a proven starter. Deandre Baker is coming off a gruesome leg injury. The safety room is the same, but the cornerback room scares me.
There are concerns with this Chiefs’ roster, which I’ve talked about on this page. Still, they have the two ultimate trump cards; Mahomes and Reid. There are concerns with the depth and some of the defensive issues, but the improved offensive line should keep Mahomes healthier. Kansas City is angry and wanting revenge, and it’s going to be difficult to see any team overtaking them. Kansas City is on top until someone takes them out.
2: Las Vegas Raiders
2020 Record: 8-8
Coaching Staff: Jon Gruden (HC), Greg Olsen (OC), Gus Bradley (DC)
Additions: Yannick Ngakoue, Nick Martin, Kenyan Drake, Soloman Thomas, Quinton Jefferson, Karl Joseph, John Brown, Casey Hayward
Departures: Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, Trent Brown, Raekwon McMillan, Nelson Agholor, Maliek Collins, Lamarcus Joyner
2021 Draft Class: Alex Leatherwood, Trevon Moerhig, Malcolm Koonce, Divine Deablo, Tyree Gillespie, Nate Hobbs, Jimmy Morrissey
Starting with the coaching staff, it’s had mixed results in the NFL. Jon Gruden made his money in the late 1990s and early 2000s, leading the Raiders to a Super Bowl appearance and the Buccaneers to a championship. His teams tailored off by the mid-2000s, and Gruden took a long time off to broadcast. Since coming back in 2018, the results have been okay. He’s transitioned back to playcalling well in his return, blending his style of West Coast offense with a Power running scheme well. But some of his in-game decisions haven’t been great, and the way he’s built this roster is odd.
Gus Bradley is the new DC for this unit, and his scheme alone should help this unit. He’ll install the Seattle Cover 3/Cover 6 defense, but just having a defensive coordinator who knows how to gameplan vs. teams and make adjustments is huge. Bradley’s been one of the few guys that have limited Patrick Mahomes in his career, but it’ll be more challenging this time without the elite personnel he had with the Chargers.
Derek Carr is 8th season as starting quarterback for the Raiders, and it seems the Gruden offense fits him well. Carr’s had over 4000 yards in each of the last three seasons and 49 TDs to 17 INTs over the past two years. There will always be limitations with Carr’s athleticism and ability in big games, but Carr has proven to be an above-average quarterback that's suitable in the NFL. With total mastery of the Gruden offense, Carr should continue to play well.
The Raiders have an interesting group of playmakers, but they’re also good. Darren Waller is the 3rd best tight end in the league and deserves the respect George Kittle and Travis Kelce get. He’s the 2nd-best receiving tight end in the league, combining his elite size and speed to be a matchup problem for every secondary player in the league. Josh Jacobs has been a good running back for Gruden, using power and vision to win. Kenyan Drake is an upgrade over Devontae Booker and will be an asset in the receiving game.
Henry Ruggs enters his 2nd-year with the organization, and I felt that what people expected was unfair. He was okay in his rookie season, but I expect a decent bump in 2021. Hunter Renfrow is an elite route runner from the slot. I didn’t love the swap of Nelson Aglohor for John Brown, but Brown’s speed will be an asset on the outside. Bryan Edwards is good depth, and I love Foster Moreau. The Raiders may not have A-listers outside Waller, but they’ve built quality depth and options across the board. Carr has enough weapons to throw to.
The main issue with the Raiders’ team this year is their offensive line. After carrying a dominant offensive line for years, the Raiders gutted it. Right tackle Trent Brown was traded to New England, but that move made sense with his disgruntlement towards the organization. Even though he had been a good starting guard for years, right guard Gabe Jackson was traded to Seattle. The move that didn’t make any sense was dealing All-Pro center Rodney Hudson to Arizona. I’m still scratching my head over that move. Hudson has been the best center in the NFL for a while and was still dominant. The Raiders needed cap space and cash, and unfortunately, they gutted one of the best units in the league to do it.
There are still parts of the offensive line that I like, however. Left tackle Kolton Miller is only getting better and should continue an upward trajectory. Richie Incognito is a quality starter. The Raiders drafted Alex Leatherwood in the first round last year, and he’ll start at right tackle. I liked Leatherwood in the predraft process, and his use of explosive athleticism and powerful run blocking fit Gruden well. Denzelle Good was excellent at guard last season and should continue improving. Center is the big question, but Nick Martin comes in from Houston with starting experience. He’s a below-average center in the league, but he’s smart and capable. This group isn’t dominant like they have been, but Tom Cable should piece together a decent group with the talent they have internally.
The issue becomes with defense. The Raiders’ have consistently put together poor defenses for what feels like my entire lifetime, and while I like some of the moves they made, it’s still a stretch to feel confident in this unit. On the defensive line, I still have questions. I liked the addition of Yannick Ngakoue to this group, and he figures to bring the explosiveness and juice this unit hasn’t had for years. In the Gruden era, they’ve had a lot more power/technical rushers without explosiveness, but Ngakoue may bring a different juice. Maxx Crosby has been a productive pass rusher in the league, using great hands and length to win as a pass rusher. Clelin Ferrell has been disappointing since coming into the league, but there’s still room for growth with how well he used his hands in college.
The Raiders did cut Maurice Hurst this offseason, and he’s been productive. They replaced him with Quinton Jefferson, who’s a solid interior rusher. He and Johnathan Hankins isn’t an exciting interior, but not terrible either. Soloman Thomas signed from San Francisco, and I loved that signing. Thomas has been disappointing since being drafted 3rd overall in 2017, but I felt his breakout was coming last year before injury. He’ll help them a lot kicking inside on 3rd downs. Malcolm Koonce was drafted in the 3rd round, which was a head-scratching pick. He has talent as a long and bendy pass rusher but probably doesn’t factor in year 1. This defensive line improved this offseason, but I still have questions about their ability to win on the interior.
This linebacker unit isn’t great. Cory Littleton was someone who got overpaid in free agency last year and played terribly. Paul Guenther had Littleton in man coverage vs. tight ends often, and it went horribly. Hopefully, Bradley turns around his career because he was a negative last year. Nick Kwiatkoski and Nicholas Morrow aren’t bad, but this unit lacks coverage juice to defend the middle of the field, and it’s a problem for this team.
Another massive issue this organization hasn’t solved is their secondary. The Raiders are consistently near the bottom of the league in passing defense. To their credit, I liked what they did to help address that issue this offseason. They brought in veteran cornerback Casey Hayward from the Chargers, and his familiarity with the Bradley scheme will help a lot. Opposite him and in the slot is where things get tricky. Trayvon Mullen hasn’t been great in the league, and former first-round pick Damon Arnette seems to be heading down the wrong direction in his career. Amik Robertson figures to be in the slot rotation, and I like his fit there.
Where the Raiders improved significantly was their safety room. Johnathan Abram has been hot-and-cold in the NFL, and you have no idea what you’re getting from him every snap. They did make two additions in the draft I absolutely loved, with rookies Trevon Moerhig and Tyree Gillespie. Both (especially Gillespie) were favorites of mine in the draft process, and they bring so much to that room. They both can play single-high, cover in the slot, and come down to play in the box. They’re complete safety prospects and will give the Raiders way more range than they’ve had. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both get on the field early and play well.
Everyone loves to dunk on the Raiders, and I won’t act like I don’t. But honestly…I liked their offseason. While understanding that some of their moves were abysmally bad, I love the Bradley hire and some of the pieces they added to the group. The two rookie safeties give them so much more athleticism than they’ve had, and I think Ngakoue bolsters their pass rush. Offensively, they’re going to be one of the 10-best in the league. That being said, between the improvements of the other teams in the division and some of the defensive issues on the roster, I still don’t trust them. This feels like another 7-8 win season for the organization, and they’re stuck.
3: Los Angeles Chargers
2020 Record: 7-9
Coaching Staff: Brandon Staley (HC), Joe Lombardi (OC), Renaldo Hill (DC)
Additions: Corey Linsley, Jared Cook, Kyler Fackrell, Matt Feiler
Departures: Casey Hayward, Melvin Ingram, Trai Turner, Hunter Henry, Mike Pouncey, Denzel Perryman, Rayshawn Jenkins
2021 Draft Class: Rashawn Slater, Asante Samuel Jr., Josh Palmer, Tre’ McKitty, Chris Rumph, Brenden Jaimes, Nick Niemann, Larry Roundtree, Mark Webb
The coaching staff for the Chargers is new. Brandon Staley is the new head coach of this team, and his path to coaching has been fascinating. He’s part of the Vic Fangio tree and brought many of his principles over with all the Match Quarters the Rams ran. He was able to stop explosive passing plays while being able to stop the run as well. I want to do more Staley research this summer, but he’s an awesome defensive coach. Joe Lombardi comes over from New Orleans, bringing West Coast principles from Sean Payton. Staley figures to run the defense, but Renaldo Hill has a lot of league experience. The Rams’ defense was built on malleability in 2020, so the Chargers scheme should be adaptable to their personnel.
At quarterback, the Chargers carry one of the bright young stars in the league, with Justin Herbert. Herbert’s been compared to Josh Allen, but he was better early. He’s a great athlete at quarterback, but his arm and processing were terrific last year, too. There have been arguments that Herbert’s numbers might not be sustainable due to his output vs. pressure and 3rd downs, but his tape is phenomenal. He looks like someone who could legitimately challenge Patrick Mahomes long-term.
The Chargers’ skill position players are fascinating. At running back, Austin Ekeler is back, and he’s one of the best receiving backs in football. Joe Lombardi will love using him in the passing game. I loved Joshua Kelley in the 2020 draft process, but he was disappointing his rookie year. Keenan Allen is one of the best route runners in the league, and Mike Williams is a perfect prototype receiver for Herbert. Jared Cook was brought in from New Orleans to replace Hunter Henry. Cook is on the wrong side of his career here, but he’s still a quality route runner with familiarity with Lombardi. Rookie Josh Palmer could figure into the slot more and drew comparisons to Michael Thomas for his size and route-running ability from the slot.
The unit that improved significantly was the offensive line, making three massive additions. The Chargers were aggressive in solving the hole at center left behind by Mike Pouncey, signing Corey Linsley. Linsley’s a lighter center, but his athleticism and IQ make him a phenomenal pass protector and zone blocker. In the draft, the Chargers finally solved the long-time issue at left tackle, drafting Rashawn Slater. Slater’s an elite athlete with incredible IQ for a tackle. He can do anything asked on the football field, at all five spots. Matt Feiler comes in from Pittsburgh and brings versatility at the guard spot. Bryan Bulaga is healthy and one of the better right tackles in the league. Left guard may be an issue with Oday Aboushi, but having only one spot of considerable weakness is huge. The Chargers unloaded some of their team to bring in this offensive line, but the improvement could make Herbert even better.
Defensively, this group is transforming. I have a lot of questions about the defensive line. Joey Bosa is a megastar at defensive end, but besides him? It’s not great. Jerry Tillery has had flashes as a versatile lineman since 2019 but hasn’t put it together. Linval Joseph is an excellent run stuffer. Uchenna Nwosu was good in 2020, and Kyler Fackrell is okay. But without Melvin Ingram and his versatility, I wonder how this team rushes the passer. Staley will run stunts and games up front and create matchup problems with Bosa and Tillery, but this group has questions for me.
At linebacker, it’s nothing special. Kenneth Murray had a fine rookie season but didn’t flash elite play. Drue Tranquill is an acceptable coverage linebacker, and Kyzir White’s not a bad player. This group isn’t anything exceptional, but Staley also had bad linebackers with the Rams and succeeded. If Murray takes another step in this scheme, they’ll be fine.
The secondary also underwent some change this offseason. Casey Hayward left, but the secondary still has talent. They drafted Asante Samuel Jr. in the 2nd round, which was a steal. Samuel’s a feisty cornerback with elite transitions and IQ and can play inside-out. Michael Davis is a solid cornerback on the outside, and Chris Harris is still good from the slot. The safety room is exciting, with Derwin James (the best safety in the league) back. He’s the only guy outside of Lavonte David that gave Travis Kelce real problems and can legitimately play anywhere. Nasir Adderley took steps in Year 2, and I expect a good Year 3 from him. This secondary maybe doesn’t have the names it used to, but it’s still very good.
Overall, I think the Chargers are in a bit of a transition year. I don’t think they can contend immediately because this staff has some adjustments they’ll make. I think the defense may struggle for a long stretch, and the new offensive line will need work. This roster isn’t ready yet (especially on defense), so it’ll take time to get comfortable. I expect this roster to be humming more by 2022, where they’ll be much scarier for the NFL.
4: Denver Broncos
2020 Record: 5-11
Coaching Staff: Vic Fangio (HC), Pat Shurmur (OC), Ed Donatell (DC)
Additions: Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Fuller, Bobby Massie, Ronald Darby
Departures: Jurrell Casey, A.J. Bouye, Phillip Lindsay, Jeremiah Attaochu
2021 Draft Class: Patrick Surtain II, Javonte Williams, Quinn Meinerz, Baron Browning, Caden Sterns, Jamar Johnson, Seth Williams, Kary Vincent, Jonathon Cooper, Marquiss Spencer
The coaching staff of the Broncos isn’t necessarily their strength. Vic Fangio is in (my mind) the best defensive play-caller in the NFL, and he’s consistently given Patrick Mahomes problems for years. Kansas City has had trouble moving the ball against Fangio, and his Match Quarters defense is terrific. Pat Shurmur runs the West Coast offense in Denver, and it wasn’t very successful last year. His playcalling isn’t overly innovative and pretty stale. Fangio has had struggles with game management as well and has thrown away some games due to it. Fangio is an elite defensive coach, but outside of that, this staff is limited.
At quarterback, the Broncos have one of the weaker rooms in the NFL. If you combined Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock, you would have an elite quarterback. Unfortunately, that can’t happen. Lock has terrific physical talent, but the mental side of the game lacks significantly. It’s the opposite for Bridgewater, whose limited arm puts a ceiling on your passing offense. Unless Lock takes a massive step, this room is the biggest weakness on the team.
The Broncos have a very talented group of skill position players, and all are young. The running back room consists of veteran running backs Royce Freeman and Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams. Gordon’s a solid all-around back with good hands, and Freeman is a talented short-yardage back. Where it gets interesting is with Williams. Williams was someone I liked in the predraft process. I liked his explosiveness and agility in his game, but he’s also superb in pass protection. His juice gives them something they don’t have on the roster currently, and I expect him to get the bulk of the carries in Denver.
On the perimeter, the Broncos have talent. Courtland Sutton returns from an ACL surgery, and I believe he was emerging as one of the ten best receivers in the league. Jerry Jeudy didn’t have a great rookie year with drops and consistency, but he flashed enough route-running ability to take a jump in Year 2. K.J. Hamler wasn’t used a ton as a rookie but is bound for a more prominent role this year. Tim Patrick has played well as a bigger-body receiver for the Broncos. Tight end Noah Fant is an emerging star and is poised to be an elite tight end soon. Albert Okwuegbunam flashed as a backup tight end. This group is full of young talent on the perimeter and should continue to progress as players.
The offensive line for the Broncos isn’t great. The left side is talented, with Garett Bolles and Dalton Risner. Bolles finally played well at left tackle last season and seemed to have polished out the flaws in his game. Dalton Risner is a really good left guard and fits well next to Bolles. Rookie Lloyd Cushenberry struggled at center last year, especially dealing with power. The right side of this line has issues with Graham Glasgow and Bobby Massie. Glasgow struggled last year, and Massie has played poorly at right tackle for years. Rookie Quinn Meinerz is someone with C and G versatility and could figure to take one of Cushenberry’s or Glascow’s jobs. The right side of the Broncos’ offensive line has struggled for years and figures to do so again.
Defensively, this unit could be exciting. On the defensive line, the Broncos return Hall of Famer Von Miller, one of the league’s better pass rushers. Bradley Chubb was terrific last year, and that tandem is devastating for quarterbacks. Shelby Harris is one of the most underrated DTs in the league, and I liked what I saw from Dre’Mont Jones last year. This unit could be devastating rushing the passer this season.
The linebacker core for the Broncos is probably the weakest part of their defense. I like Alexander Johnson, but he and Josey Jewell are average NFL linebackers. Neither are overly dynamic players, especially in coverage, but they are serviceable. Baron Browning was drafted in the top 100, but I’m not sure he’s ready for a full-time linebacker role yet. Justin Strnad is decent depth. This unit isn’t exceptional but has some depth and options built into it.
Where this defense gets exciting is their secondary. Cornerback massively improved for the Broncos this offseason. They signed two free agents, Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller. Fuller played excellently for the Fangio defense when he was in Chicago. His zone instincts and ability to play the ball make him a terrific fit for this scheme, even in his late 20s. Darby has had health problems in his career, but his footwork and versatility give him ability in the slot and outside. The Broncos also drafted Patrick Surtain II with the 9th pick in the draft. He was my CB1. His patience, athleticism, ball skills, and IQ make him a terrific prospect. I expect him to come in and play very well early. The Broncos have decent depth as well, with Bryce Callahan as an excellent slot option off the bench. Michael Ojemudia started the entire season for Denver last year, and I liked Kary Vincent in 2019 at LSU. This unit is deep and primed to be fantastic.
The safety room has two excellent safeties in Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons. Jackson is an actual “do it all” safety. He can play in the box as a run defender, cover tight ends and slot receivers in the slot, and rotate deep in the middle of the field. His athleticism isn’t great, but his size and IQ still make him an excellent safety. Simmons has the case to be the best safety in the league, with his terrific ball skills and range getting him a massive deal. I personally love watching these two safeties work with each other, and they’re arguably the best duo in the league.
Overall, this Broncos team is interesting. I think their defense is one of the five best in the league next year. The number of secondary options they have are terrific, and that pass rush could be devastating. The offense has so much young perimeter talent. Those groups could easily compete with the Chiefs or any other team. The problem is, the Broncos have such a deficiency at offensive play-caller and quarterback. Denver will likely make a move for a quarterback next season, but it’s a problem right now. Until they solve that, this team will probably be limited to a 7-8 win team. But I can’t wait to watch this defense.