Chiefs-Browns Defensive Preview: Getting After Baker Mayfield
Kansas City's defense was able to limit the Browns to 17 points last January. Still, there are new faces to the Browns this season. Let's talk about three points I'm watching for this game.
After doing an offensive preview earlier this week, it’s time to talk about the defense. This matchup fascinates me for many reasons, but it’ll be a test for some of the new look defenders on this Chiefs defense. It’ll test how improved their run defense is, if the new linebacker rotation improves the Chiefs’ coverage and if the pass rush will be a problem. Let’s discuss three points I’m watching for and a score prediction on the bottom.
1: Getting Pressure On Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield is a polarizing quarterback because he runs hot-and-cold in a lot of areas. Baker has quality athletic traits and a good arm, but his inconsistencies with turnovers, reading the field, and pressure have been issues in his young career.
Luckily, the Browns fixed their offensive line in 2020. They allowed the least amount of pressures in the league last season at 88. The unit was terrific in 2020. The interior was dominant with Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and J.C. Tretter in the run game. Jack Conklin had a good season at right tackle, and rookie Jedrick Wills showed flashes as an athlete in space. The play-action/wide zone scheme they run does benefit their OL, but they held up fine on 3rd downs well. Baker Mayfield always had plenty of time.
If you’re the Chiefs, the key to beating Cleveland is getting pressure on Baker, but mainly with four guys. If you’re going to blitz the Browns (especially up the middle), you’re screwed. Stefanski will run all of his play-action concepts out of heavy protection and relentlessly attack you over the middle of the field. You need some 2nd-level defenders to at least contest throwing windows, so blitzing isn’t a great option. Spagnuolo will send some slot blitzes to speed up Baker’s process, but the guys up front are going to have to bring it this week. Chris Jones, Jarran Reed, and especially Frank Clark need to bring it this week. If those guys have good games, this could turn into a bloodbath for Cleveland, but that offensive line will be ready. The Front 4, both in run and pass game, will determine how well the defense will play this week.
2: Bevy Of Run Concepts
I wrote about this last year leading into the playoffs, but the Browns aren’t just a zone team. They mix it up with any run concept. You’ll see a lot of zone, but they’ll run Duo, Power, or Counter away from the strongside. They’ll even mix in some Draw and Crack Toss, letting their athletes get into space.
The beauty of the Browns’ rushing attack is that they can perform anything needed because their offensive linemen are scheme-versatile. Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski didn’t go after one type of linemen, so they can win with any run concept.
This makes the Chiefs’ challenge of defending them difficult. It’s a lot of preparation for many concepts, and it could slow them down a bit this week. They’re going to have to be deep in the film room this week and look for any indicators of what the Browns will run because you’ll see it all this week (Duo under center, for example).
3: Tight End Usage
The Kevin Stefanski offense (Play Action, Wide Zone) relies heavily on tight end usage, and that shows in the stats. Cleveland was 9th in 12 personnel (2 TEs), 5th in 22 personnel (2 RBs and 2 TEs), and 1st in 13 personnel (3 TEs). Kevin Stefanski loves bringing heavier personnel on the field and using that to run the football and generate easy yards from play action.
Steve Spagnuolo will counter that action with his base defense and use that heavily. The base defense for the Chiefs has a new look this season. Kansas City signed Jarran Reed to play 3-technique next to Derrick Nnadi, pushing Chris Jones to a more defensive end. The Chiefs are significantly heavier on the defensive line this season and project to be a much-improved unit on run defense. The linebacker room looks different as well, with the addition of Nick Bolton. Bolton projects to bring a level of explosiveness and speed to the room they haven’t had in the Brett Veach era. Kansas City spent resources trying to fix some of their run defense issues this offseason, and it’ll be a great test early on vs. the Browns heavier offense.
Bonus: Old And New Faces In Wide Receiver Room
I won’t have a bonus point every week, but with the Browns, I do have one more point to bring up with this matchup, the new-look wide receiver room for the Browns.
For old faces, the Browns bring back Odell Beckham Jr. from injury. Odell tore his ACL last season, and even though there was a narrative he made his team worse, his impact on that offense is massive. Odell provides a level of speed and juice that they don’t have on the roster. He’s not Tyreek Hill running vertically, but what he does downfield opens up this Browns offense significantly. Odell’s one of the better vertical threats in the league, using his insane speed and coordination to win in any way you ask of him deep. The Browns lacked speed on the outside when he went down, but the field is way more open with Odell back.
The Browns also drafted a rookie I wanted to talk about, which is Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz is an insane athlete, running a 4.27 at his Pro Day. He’s a bit stiff and not a complete route runner, but he gives the Browns someone who can dominate after the catch. Kevin Stefanski will use him similarly to Deebo Samuel his rookie season, where the 49ers got him going downhill on some reverse action, screens, and in motion. Schwartz is significantly faster than Samuel, and I would expect Stefanski to get him into the game early to challenge the Chiefs.
The Browns had three quality receivers in the playoff game last year in Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Rashard Higgins, but the level of perimeter speed they have now is much improved. They now have the guys who can win in space, which should be concerning for this Chiefs’ defense.
Conclusion: Can The Chiefs’ Defense Stop the Browns’ Offense?
The Brown’s offense presents many problems to a defense. If you load up against the run with heavier defensive linemen and linebackers, they’ll attack you in the middle of the field. If you go light to have linebackers vs. play action, they’ll run you to death. The way they mix up run concepts also makes it incredibly difficult to get a read on them. Stefanski will then mix it up with a screen. His game scripts are terrific and keep defenses off balance.
The Chiefs are going to have an early test for some new faces up front. Steve Spagnuolo will rely heavily on his base defense this week, but the Chiefs are better equipped for that in the run game. Jarran Reed at 3T and Chris Jones at DE puts a lot more mass on their front, and Nick Bolton presents more range and athleticism. The Chiefs are well-equipped to stop the run, but they may struggle in zone coverage. Even with Willie Gay and Nick Bolton, there could be coverage issues. Bolton’s not a fluid player in coverage, and Gay didn’t look overly comfortable there in 2020. If those guys don’t show progress, the Browns may be able to consistently attack the middle of the field, which is a problem.
Overall, I think the Chiefs’ defense may struggle vs. this unit. I expect them to hold up reasonably well in the run game, but getting after the quarterback and stopping the middle of the field could be a challenge. But the Chiefs have a margin of error on defense because of their offense, and they’ll string together a few stops. Chris Jones will get in the backfield a few times to blow up possessions, and Baker is still turnover-prone. Kansas City doesn’t need to limit the Browns to 20, but anything under 27 and you feels great. I expect the Chiefs to win this game, 37-24.