Chiefs-Ravens Offensive Preview: Defeating The Blitz
Kansas City travels to Baltimore in Week 2, where they demolished this Ravens' group a season ago. Let's talk about the Chiefs' offense against the stout Ravens defense and how they can attack them.
<<Intro>>
1: Beating The Blitz
When you’re talking about the Baltimore Ravens defense, the first thing that has to be brought up is how they blitz. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has built his reputation off his incredible blitzes, blitzing on an insane 44% of dropbacks (#1 in the league). Baltimore is 4th in pressure rate, but they gain most of their pressures from the blitz. Baltimore plays a lot from dime situations and will send their DBs from various angles and depth to challenge teams. Baltimore will even creep 7-8 guys on the line of scrimmage, getting teams confused.
This will be a great test early for this brand new Chiefs offensive line. Considering there isn’t much chemistry in this group, it’ll be interesting to see how well they pick up the blitz. Andy Reid likes to call a lot of five-man protections, but against the Ravens, he will keep his running back in protection more and slide to a side. How well will Creed Humphrey and Patrick Mahomes communicate the blitzes, and will Kansas City pick up protections well? If they can, there will be a lot of space for their playmakers to dominate in, which brings us to point #2…
2: Generating Explosive Plays
The Ravens have been in the top 5 in the least amount of explosive pass plays given up twice since 2018 (11th in 2019). They’ve done an excellent job of limiting explosive pass plays given up because their secondary has so many quality options, but also because teams have to get rid of the ball so fast to beat their blitz. They want to force the ball underneath and rally to the football to force 3rd and longs.
In the Week 3 matchup last season, however, Kansas City had five explosive passing plays in that game, for 12% of their passing plays. They had four in 2019, for 11% of their dropbacks. Kansas City has generated explosive plays vs. a defense that doesn’t give up many because of the amount of space they force a defense to cover.
With guys like Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, Kansas City can generate explosive plays with all that speed on the field. The Ravens have had trouble covering Travis Kelce as well, giving up easy yards over the middle. With all the speed the Chiefs have on the field, and how aggressive the Ravens like to play, Kansas City has a ton of space to cover. If the Ravens plan to play the same way again, it’ll be a long day for their secondary.
3: Can Anyone On The Ravens Cover Travis Kelce?
One of the biggest problems for the Ravens since the Andy Reid era has been defending Travis Kelce. In four games against the Ravens, he has 26 catches, 326 yards, and 1 touchdown. Over a full season, 104 catches, 1304 yards, and 4 touchdowns. They haven’t been able to find answers for Kelce these past few seasons.
Watching last year’s game again, I went back and charted which guys covered Kelce, getting an idea of how the Ravens like to defend Kelce. Here were the results.
Marlon Humphrey: 7 (slot primarily)
Jimmy Smith: 20 (when Kelce aligned as the backside WR in 3X1 sets)
Chuck Clark: 22 (when Kelce was inline)
Deshon Elliott: 4
Marcus Peters: 5
Anthony Averett: 1
Chuck Clark and Jimmy Smith got the most run on Kelce last year, trying to put size on him, while also having guys who could help fit the run out of there. It didn’t work, because Kelce’s too quick and nuanced for those guys, especially Clark. That’s the problem for most teams unless you have Lavonte David or Derwin James, but it’s been an issue for Baltimore.
One thing I’ll be charting very early on the game is the Kelce matchup. I wonder if this is the year where the Ravens stick Marlon Humphrey on him full-time. Humphrey is one of the few guys that could potentially limit Kelce with his combination of frame, speed, and IQ. He won’t limit him to zero catches, but he seems to be the best option for the Ravens. If they don’t stick Humphrey on Kelce, then I worry for Baltimore that they’ll run into the same issues they have.
Bonus: Will Chiefs Replicate Same Success In Red Zone?
Kansas City finished 16th in red zone touchdown percentage in 2020, but that wasn’t the case against Baltimore. In their matchup last year, Kansas City went 100% in the red zone. That game produced two of the best play calls in the Andy Reid era, where he drew up touchdowns for fullback Anthony Sherman and left tackle, Eric Fisher.
While I would love seeing a touchdown called for Orlando Brown or some other linemen, the question does come whether the Chiefs will have the same success in the red zone. That was a critical part in last year’s win, but can the Chiefs generate the same points down there. If they struggle there, it’ll be hard to keep a serious lead against Baltimore, and you don’t want to play four quarters against them and that rushing attack.
Conclusion: Will The Chiefs Offense Beat The Ravens Defense?
This matchup presents more uniqueness than the Browns do. Baltimore has their way of playing football with the blitz and man coverage, and they don’t change for everyone. That’s not to say Wink Martindale won’t add some wrinkles (he called some Cover 3 last year after getting mauled in the 1st half), but they want to matchup and compete with pressure and man coverage.
We now have three games of evidence that if the Ravens want to do that, they’re going to give up explosive plays. Yes, Sammy Watkins being gone is a big loss against Baltimore (he was big in the two previous games), but with the new offensive line to help pick up protections, Mahomes will have more time than ever vs. the Ravens.
The Ravens may switch things up with how they guard Kelce, but I expect a similar gameplan from them, and I expect the Chiefs to move the ball like they always do. We’ll get to the defense later, but I don’t expect many issues moving the ball vs. Baltimore again.