How Does The Julio Jones Trade Affect The Chiefs And The AFC?
Superstar wide receiver Julio Jones was traded from Atlanta to Tennessee this Sunday. How does that affect the power balance of the AFC, and is Tennesee a threat to Kansas City? Let's talk!
It’s rare for moves after the NFL Draft to have any real consequence for the NFL season. Guys will get signed in the summer, but they generally don’t significantly impact a football team. There’s a reason those guys are available in June; age or injury history usually limits how good they are.
This week had a rare trade in June that has massive ramifications, with Julio Jones being traded to Tennessee. Jones, the future Hall Of Fame receiver, was traded due to salary cap problems in the Atlanta organization. Tennesee took the chance on a superstar talent, only surrendering a 2nd-round pick and other small draft capital.
With Substack, I want to cover how some of these massive moves affect the Chiefs and the AFC, so let’s talk about what Julio will give the Titans, how that affects the Chiefs in matching up vs. Tennessee, and how the AFC is balanced out currently. Enjoy!
(P.S.; I’ll have film reviews out this week hopefully, sorry I haven’t been getting to those!)
Julio’s Role On The Titans
Julio Jones is going to make a massive impact on Tennessee’s offense. After losing Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis in free agency, the depth of the skill players for Tennesee was severely hurting. Before the Julio trade, the Titans were relying on Josh Reynolds, Anthony Firkser, Geoff Swaim, and a bunch of nobodies outside of Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. Tennessee was going to struggle to be anywhere as efficient offensively this season because they relied on two players for their entire production.
With Julio, they add a 3rd game-breaking player to their offense. That’s massive. Teams won’t stack the box as heavily vs. Derrick Henry, who faced stacked boxes on a ridiculous 28% of rushing plays. With Julio and Brown on the outside, teams won’t be able to go single-high vs. the Titans, giving Henry even boxes. With that offensive line, that's a devastating thought for the NFL. Tennessee won’t have to face what they dealt with when they faced Baltimore, where they stacked the box almost every play.
Even when teams have to go two-high to stop the passing offense, Julio and Brown will be devastating physical receivers. Even at 32, Julio is still tremendous after the catch, having 231 YAC in 2020. Julio still was hovering around the top-30 in 2019, having 364 YAC. A.J. Brown has ranked in the top-20 in both of his seasons after the catch. It’s going to be challenging for any defense to tackle these two guys in space. Tennessee is going to be really hard to stop in the open field.
I was wondering how well Tennessee would manage without Arthur Smith as play-caller and all of those players leaving, but with those three game-breaking Hall Of Fame talents (we’ll see if Brown gets there), Tennessee should easily be a top-five offensive in the league. That offensive line is still largely intact (outside of right tackle, where rookie Dillon Radunz will compete. Julio makes a massive impact.
How Will The Chiefs Defend The Titans?
This is a tricky proposition for the Chiefs. With Bashaud Breeland leaving for the Vikings, their cornerback room isn’t well-equipped to deal with Julio and Brown on the outside. Kansas City has all of these press cornerbacks who want to use their length and physicality to win, but you can’t out physical these receivers. Having that length will help them in contested catch situations, but those guys are massive issues for the Chiefs. You’ll see brackets when Tennessee puts one of these guys in the slot, but you can’t bracket two players while also focusing on Derrick Henry.
Speaking of Henry, Kansas City won’t be able to stack the box at all. Tennesee was tied for 1st in 12 personnel rate in 2020, while 9th in 21 personnel rate. Even without Jonnu, they’re going to use a lot of tight ends to pound the rock. The rate might not be as heavy, but it’s still in their DNA. That means we will see a lot of base, so the Chiefs will play many linebackers when they play Tennessee.
I would expect the Chiefs would plan to go heavy with Chris Jones at DE, Jarran Reed at 3T, Derrick Nnadi at NT, and Frank Clark on the weakside. With Nick Bolton, Anthony Hitchens, and Willie Gay at linebacker, that’s a lot of size to deal with the wide zone the Titans will run. That group should hold up in the run game more, so the Chiefs won’t need to stack the box a ton.
When Tennessee goes 11 personnel with Josh Reynolds, I expect one of Brown or Julio to get pushed to the slot (probably Brown). I would expect Kansas City to bracket the slot receiver, leaving a one-on-one with the other guy. Kansas City may shadow a guy deep, but Tennessee will have a matchup they like. Kansas City may have to play a numbers game and force Tennessee and Ryan Tannehill to throw to the same guy 15+ times. Most offenses won’t do that over time, so that could be a strategy the Chiefs use when someone moves inside.
This won’t be an easy matchup for the Chiefs. Tennessee will move the ball on the Chiefs’ defense, especially with the Chiefs not being a good tackling team. That may change with some new additions to the linebacker room, but with Breeland gone to handle one side, I would be very concerned about the wide receiver matchup vs. the Chiefs’ cornerbacks. That’s a problem.
AFC Tiers
I made this tweet on Sunday after the Julio news, but here would be how I would tier the AFC currently. Moves and injuries will obviously change, but here’s how I see the AFC today.
Tier 1: Kansas City (1), Buffalo (2)
The two teams that made the AFC Championship Game are still the best in my eyes. Kansas City has Reid and Mahomes, a roster similar to last year, and an offensive line improvement. While I’m scared about the pass rush inconsistencies and cornerback in general, Kansas City is still way too talented offensively not to be in the first-tier.
I think Buffalo’s being underrated this season. Their offense still has Brian Daboll as play-caller, return their entire offensive line, and switched out Emmanuel Sanders for John Brown (an upgrade for me). That defensive line made two big selections with Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr., who should help their interior pass rush tremendously. Buffalo’s a young roster with a ton of talent everywhere, and they’re going to be a problem this season.
Tier 2: Cleveland (3), Tennessee (4)
Cleveland added a ton of talent to that defense, but I still don’t trust their middle of the field in coverage, their pass rush if Jadeveon Clowney’s not available, or their tackling. Those seem like big problems. They significantly improved their secondary, but their front 7, to me, is still due for an overhaul. I don’t think they would get pressure vs. Buffalo or Kansas City.
I spent all that time talking about how Tennessee’s offense is a problem, and it is. Their defense still presents problems for their team, though. I still don’t trust their defense to get stops, even after adding a bunch of guys. Bud Dupree was brought in to be an elite pass rusher, but I’m not sure he can be your team’s best pass rusher. Denico Autry will help their interior rush next to Jeffrey Simmons, and Harold Landry on the other edge with Dupree gives them more pass rush. Their secondary did add Caleb Farley, Elijah Molden, and Janoris Jenkins to the group, but if Farley isn’t healthy, that secondary still may struggle to get stops. I don’t think they would limit Kansas City or Buffalo under 35-40 points and give me Josh Allen or Mahomes over Tannehill.
Tier 3: Ravens (5), Patriots (6), Colts (7)
I didn’t love what Baltimore did this offseason. For me, this is the worst roster they’ve had since 2018. Baltimore did improve at wide receiver with the additions of Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman, and Tylan Wallace, but their losses in the trenches are significant. Kevin Zeitler will help inside, but Alejandro Villanueva at RT and Patrick Mekari at C are massive concerns for me. On the defensive line, losing Yannick Ngakoye and Matt Judon makes any chance they could win without blitzing very difficult.
New England made a ton of moves this offseason. The Patriots added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne on the outside to give them more speed. Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry will allow New England to run effective 12 personnel finally. On defense, Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy will help their pass rush. New England spent a lot of money but figures to be way deeper and more diverse as a roster.
The problem? I still don’t trust their offense. New England will pound the ball and attack the middle of the field, but an inconsistent Cam Newton and lack of an elite offensive player still make me question how this team will score. Jonnu hasn’t proven to be an elite receiving option, and I honestly think Henry is athletically declining. This team still has similar issues to last year; they just added enough talent to make the playoffs.
The Colts didn’t get better for me. Carson Wentz to Phillip Rivers might be a downgrade, and Anthony Costanzo to Eric Fisher is a clear downgrade. Kwity Paye gives them juice off the edge, but Dayo Odeyingbo won’t play Year 1. The Colts are stuck in a weird place for me, and I don’t see them as a better team this season.
Tier 4: Chargers (8), Steelers (9)
I won’t spend much time on these teams. I’ll cover the Chargers in an AFC West preview later, but I don’t expect them to be great this season. The offense should be dynamic behind an improved OL, but the defense isn’t great for me. Brandon Staley’s scheme was largely dependent on not having many bodies in the box, but Staley was afforded that privilege because he had Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. He doesn’t have those guys with the Chargers. His scheme may need time and another offseason to develop, so I don’t expect a great defense.
The Steelers are similar to last year but added at running back and tight end. The problem? Their offensive line is horrific, and Big Ben is a liability with his arm talent. They won’t be able to move the ball in 2021. The Steelers are due for a rebuild.